INKISH.NEWS -

2020 is less than a week away, and this is the time of year where speculations, predictions, and considerations is an editors kind of Christmas amusement - at least for me!

As 2020 is a drupa year, a lot of the technological advances focuses around some megatrends. We can, for sure, expect evolutions within inkjet. I believe that all the major inkjet manufacturers will offer a broader range of equipment where all will deliver both sheetfed and roll-based options. I also think that all of the major vendors will offer B2 and B1 options, and with that development, the offset vendors will be further challenged. However, since digital still only accounts for only a fraction of the global print volume, the offset vendors will continue to focus on speed, optimization, and UV-options like LED-UV. Offset vendors will most likely also present inkjet-devices all based on frames from Screen (Koenig & Bauer), Fuji-film (Heidelberg), Komori (Konica Minolta), and Ricoh (Heidelberg).

Optimization is tremendously important for printers - or is it? Vendors keep pushing automation, and with new buzz-word like IoT (Internet of Things) we are all touted how important this is. And yes, it's important, but it will in 2020 raise questions about utilization and for who we are optimizing. In 2019 we spoke with various vendors, and the average utilization degree of most offset presses are less than 50%, so why optimize the production further, when the most crucial issue isn't optimization but sales?

Automation/workflow will, however, and regardless of above, continue to be in focus. The question is namely less about the utilization of equipment but being able to deliver faster and faster, with fewer touch-points, minimizing errors, and maybe most important being able to push jobs to whatever press available at any time. More and more printing companies will also have to invest in skilled IT-people since another buzz-word like 'API', will require new skills for printing companies. It's less about having experienced pre-press people, but a question about automating everything that relates to the files/print without being touched by humans.

An essential part of the Industry 4.0 mantra is IoT, API's, but also robots. At drupa 2020, I am quite confident that we will see offset presses managed without skilled operators. We might even see offset presses where robots are handling more and more of the physical labour needed today.

All process that can be automated will be automated. AVTs/self-driving vehicles will deliver the paper to the presses as well as unloading the printed sheets. Robots will handle plates. Binding equipment will adjust and be able to process the printed sheets automatically and error-free down to the copies of one. Volume will seriously be challenged in 2020, and with the new technology, customers will see true on-demand deliveries of books, magazines, etc.

Binding equipment will, at drupa, seriously step-up when it comes to workflow/automation.

Where JDF/XJDF is already implemented in most equipment 2020 is the year where the demand from printing companies to build complete end-to-end solutions will finally grow, and that will be put pressure on the vendors who have not invested R&D into this timely.

At the trade shows in 2019 we already saw the first steps of IoT solutions and hardware/software vendors delivering solutions - now printing companies and the consultants must get up-to-speed to the new technologies, so these can be implemented. I believe that the next phase of rolling out workflow/automation will go way faster than the first phase. Now it's not about "if" but "when", and the ones that will be too slow, may not survive.

That goes for vendors too. If vendors aren't able to deliver solutions that can extend a modern printing company's need for automation, the future will be limited!

However, the market will continue to differentiate. The online printing companies will continue to focus on price and extending their market shares. Most of the European online printers continues to develop business-to-business services 'lurking' conventional printing companies to partner with them. Apparently, end-users, consumers, and the SoHo segment don't grow as fast as in the beginning. With the low-price strategy, a price level has reached an all-time low, where prices are not enough to continue the rapid growth many of these companies have seen!

The online printers, however, also use new means to grow. In Scandinavia, a considerable number of printing companies have been acquired by Onlineprinters Scandinavian entity Scandinavian Print Group. Onlineprinters are owned by a private equity firm, Bregal Unternehmerkapital, that also owns Dutch-based Helloprint. In Scandinavia, Onlineprinters seem to test their multi-brand strategy with all their brands operating and apparently competing with each other. Will be interesting to follow this strategy in 2020. In 2019 CEO Michael Friis from Onlineprinters stopped working for the European giant. I foresee other management changes in the future, and who knows maybe Onlineprinters are getting ready to be sold?

Online printers still account for a minority of the print market; however, the growth these companies have achieved have made them beacons for some printers.

One of the consistent headlines in the global printing industry has obviously been mergers and acquisitions. After the failure of the proposed deal between Xerox and Fuji-film, Xerox is trying to force HP into an agreement. Though major shareholders like Carl Icahn is trying to push HP into a deal, I know for a fact, that what might look good on paper, would most likely not be received positively by clients. Major customers have expressed their concerns about this to HP. I believe that the two companies have very different focuses on quality, deliveries, and what printing companies find essential.

On a more personal note, I often speculate about why Xerox is so keen on merging with someone. Xerox used to be the leader in digital print, but today their role is, of course, significant, but they are not leading development, and they may need HP more than HP needs Xerox?

However, mergers and acquisitions are on the agenda, and I wouldn't be surprised if HP either buy or will get sold to somebody else during 2020 to avoid pressure from Xerox and shareholders. I am confident the HP community will stretch far to prevent a Xerox acquisition.

As we saw SGIA's acquisition of NAPCO in 2019, I believe this is just the beginning. Organizations, trade shows, and the media will have to re-think their business models. We see trade magazines claiming a readership of 7 times the circulation, and charging advertising prices accordingly. The industry may want to support this for other reasons, but many vendors are looking into different value-propositions. The same goes for the trade-shows. An endless number of shows deliver fewer and fewer visitors, and the time spend on all these shows can hardly be justified. PRINTING United 2019 in Dallas was a success, and with an expected growth of 30+%, the good folks at SGIA have set the bar high. In the US they are up against Tarsus with their LabelExpo US edition and the new Brand Print Americas that lives on the remains of GraphExpo/Print® - and to be honest - I really don't know if there is a need for that show. SGIA/Napco seems to be the better bet, in my opinion. It's a member-driven organization and a media group with a far broader reach than most others in the US.

Organizations like APTech, unfortunately, seems to have wholly lost direction. I like the people there, but I can't see where they are heading and why.

Like everybody else, I am, of course, biased and coloured in my opinion based on my own experiences, and that isn't fair, but what else, can I write when I am trying to give my five-cents about 2020.

Organizations/companies like Intergraf, Keypoint Intelligence, APTech, and others similar, need to have better communication and channels. They have a significant role to play, but if nobody knows what they are doing, how should it be possible to support?

In Europe, Intergraf seems to work on getting more visible. Integraf is the umbrella organization for all European federations of printers. To be more visible is, for sure essential and needed. In a world where politicians seem to be influenced more by sayings (Greta Thunberg) than doings (researchers and people that actually develop research and solutions), we as an industry need to influence as much as possible - on a well-educated foundation. I am not sure whether Intergraf is up to the task yet, but doing something is hopefully better than doing nothing.

One of the things you may think I have forgotten is Landa. Landa is going to be at their third drupa, and I believe regardless of how excellent technology Nanography is, its time to deliver. Fortunately for both customers and Landa, deliveries have begun. At the upcoming drupa, I believe Landa will introduce new smaller machines, with a lower price tag, and delivery shortly after drupa. Since Landa introduced its machines, the market has changed a lot. Inkjet has matured. Offset has got an even faster setup time, and toner-based print is delivering more at lower prices than ever. Demand for print is still decreasing, and though everybody we speak to is very optimistic on behalf of Landa, it's still a quite interesting discussion why. Why should you invest in digital B2/B1 format? Does it make sense to invest in equipment that obviously enables you to do variable print? And is the market finally moving to personalized print in volumes?

Questions that no-one at the current time can answer, but time will show. 2020 is regardless of above, a very exciting year. Technology will evolve, but everybody talks about the upcoming recession that again will change demand for print, and to some extent also limit the money for investments in new technologies. These changes may become more important to the future of print than the technology itself.

INKISH will, of course, cover all the aspects as good as we can. 2020 will for us be a fantastic year. We are establishing a US-entity in Q1. We are planning and delivering the most extensive coverage of drupa 2020 that we have ever done at any trade show. We will extend the number of partners we have globally, and we will, for sure, produce more content ever. We are excited about the future, but for many printers 2019 has not been as good as expected, so we will also do our best to inspire the owners and management in our industry with stories that can help you thrive.

Happy New Year - and all the best!

Dec 25, 2019

Author: Morten B. Reitoft