Trade is as old as civilization. Humans trade—food, goods, rights, anything with value. One word that has defined both Trump administrations is “tariff,” a tool that, yes, even ancient Greece used for the same reasons we do today: to protect domestic markets and tax foreign goods.

So what actually sets the tariff on a product?

In 1988, the World Customs Organization (WCO) rolled out the Harmonized System (HS) for classifying products. More than 200 countries rely on it. Finding the right code can be tedious, but the HS exists to make life simpler for both importers and exporters.

When you export, your customs paperwork (and typically the pro forma invoice or the commercial invoice, depending on the Incoterms) carries the HS code. Based on that self-declared code, duties are calculated and paid. Incoterms define who carries which risks and costs. DDP is the full-fat version: the shipment is delivered with all tariffs and duties paid by the sender. Every term splits responsibilities between buyer and seller, and the “paid” or “unpaid” elements decide who pays tariffs, import duties, and the costs of customs handling.

Customs authorities will periodically audit shipments to verify that the correct HS code is used. By law, you must classify correctly—no excuses.

For printing presses, the HS-code is 8443.13.0.0. There’s no base tariff—but a 15% reciprocal tariff applies.

And yes, presses are steel-heavy, but the WCO draws a hard line between raw materials and finished goods. Printing presses are not hit by the much higher (50%) charge on raw materials. The HS-code here hasn’t changed, so if you’re in doubt about your category, look at what you’ve historically exported under.

So, with Trump, a printing press from Europe is 15% more expensive—and that’s not the end of it. The current exchange rate has knocked about 13% off the dollar. As of December 31, 2024, the currency move alone pushes the total price up by 27.9%.

A few months ago, I wrote about the export edge a weaker dollar gave U.S. sellers into Europe. That advantage has now faded to almost zero. Material and operating costs have climbed roughly in step with the devalued dollar.

For Americans, this is a migraine: exports are up 5.2%, but imports are up 12.1%.

What happens in the U.S. now?
It hinges on everything that matters. Will interest rates fall? Will inflation rise as expected? Will consumer confidence hold—or crack? These macro forces define the demand for print. If the economy stays steady and the U.S. keeps growing despite the headwinds, demand for presses remains—and buyers will swallow higher prices. Break it down: on a €4 million machine, that’s $700,000 more—plus the currency hit. Depreciated over seven years, without interest, that’s roughly $100,000 a year, about $8,400 a month. At 2 million sheets a month, you add $0.0042 per sheet. Who really cares?

But psychology bites—and financing bites harder. The average interest rate in the United States is 7.5%. Will your bank or leasing company demand a higher credit score, a stronger balance sheet, better P&L—what exactly?

Over time, the 15% tariff will just become the baseline. Will the big OEMs see sales stall? I feared a hard stop, but Americans are resilient and adapt fast. Yes, packaging, marketing, labels, PODs, and more will feel the ripples. Still, if there’s no other path to acquire machines, tariffs become one more cost difference—akin to VAT regimes and general business conditions—and markets adjust.

Every day since Donald Trump’s election, we’ve all gamed out the market impact. How much do tariffs and uncertainty really move the needle? We’ve built “if this, then that” scenarios—and so far, we’ve been wrong. That’s one reason for today’s analysis: to show how little—or how much—tariffs actually matter unless they rise sharply.

Some analysts already talk about a thousand fewer printing companies. That number alone says little; if the exits are inefficient small players, consolidation can strengthen the rest of the market. OEMs are nervous, naturally—it’s only six months into the new Administration. Nothing is set in stone. So what should OEMs do now?

Do what we did at INKISH when COVID-19 hit: keep producing to stay relevant. Many of you met us during that period. The print industry must keep investing in new machines to remain competitive and profitable. OEMs must keep supporting the market exactly as before the tariffs—I’m certain they will sell. If they pull back, the market sours. Nobody wins.

My view may differ from others, and I understand why some cut costs and lay off staff. But it may be too early. I’m not saying “full throttle.” I’m saying: keep moving, act responsibly, and make sure there’s a healthy market waiting when America regains its stride. For all OEMs—keep your eyes on the wheel and set course for the emerging markets. That’s where the radical growth is—and where it will extend.