First and foremost - a Happy New Year. Second, 2024 already seems to be a year with many things happening - from drupa to new equipment to all the geopolitical stuff that, one way or another, influences the life of being a print service provider. But it's also time for editors in the various trade media to come up with the annual predictions - always fun, and mostly highly inaccurate - but fun. So please have fun with my predictions for 2024, and comments are, as usual, more than welcome, as the only way we can learn is by communicating. Once again - Happy New Year, and all the best.

Morten B. Reitoft
Editor-in-Chief

First, a short disclaimer - all you read below is pure guessing, but I try to substantiate the guesses, and when I make a statement - it's not a statement as I know - just easier when writing - so let's get started. Why not start with Drupa 2024?

In the past, many OEMs developed products in drupa cycles. Every Drupa delivered new products and technologies, but that is not the case anymore - look back at the past eight years - every vendor has delivered new products to the market, although the last Drupa took place in 2016. Product releases will no longer be bound to events like Drupa - most of what you will see at Drupa this year will likely be announced before Drupa.

In 2016, drupa had about 260,000 visitors. At the recent LATAM Drupa promotion tour, participants said that the expectation for the 2024 Drupa is 200,000 visitors. At PRINTING United, Ford Bowers spoke about up to 25% drops at US-based exhibitions. Still, PRINTING United was at the same level as before COVID-19 - so seeing how many attendees Drupa will attract will be exciting. It will be even more exciting to see how the visitor profile will change from 2016. Only 3% were from North America - and 9% from the two Americas. I spoke to Editor Naresh Khanna from IPP Services just before Christmas. He told me that drupa expected 20,000 visitors from India - which is WAY more than in 2016, and maybe, according to Khanna not even possible to get from India to Düsseldorf - and other things need to be taken into consideration - namely, the geopolitical situation which makes it more difficult for Indians to get a Schengen VISA which is required. In the 2016 edition, 13,000 Indians visited Drupa, according to the numbers published by Drupa!

The upcoming drupa will be considerably different from the 2016 edition alone because Chinese exhibitors are the single largest country to exhibit - rumors are that the space the Chinese exhibitors occupy is up to 60% - which doesn't seem right from the published floorplans - but let's see. However, the number of exhibitors from China represents 24% of all exhibitors - The second largest representation is Germany with 22%.

Another fact is that we, along with our partners, will cover Drupa more than any other media, more intensively, in more languages, and supporting exhibitors and all the PSPs and Converters not attending more than anybody else. Our Super Content Group consists of the very best media in Europe, India, Australia/New Zealand, and Mexico, and more are on their way to join us :-) - but Drupa will, from a media perspective, most likely be covered more than any time before. The official partner is, of course, WhatTheyThink, who will produce the Daily Drupa along with their video content - so both attendees and none-attendees will be able to learn from all the exhibitors in Düsseldorf in just a few months from now!

The Super Content Group consists of the following media: www.branschkoll.se, www.print.de, www.grafkom.no, www.imprempres.com, www.industriagraficaonline.com, www.prosignhoy.com, www.repropres.net, www.envaspres.com, www.tecnobebidas.com, www.propack.pro, www.sprinter.com.au, www.newzealandprinter.co.nz, www.dopapel.com, www.revistapackaging.pt, www.poligrafika.pl, www.stampamedia.net, www.convertingmagazine.it, www.printlovers.net, and www.INKISH.TV

But let's move on to some GEAR :-)

If Inkjet were big at Drupa 2016 (I think of HP, Canon, Kodak, Konica-Minolta, and last but not least, Landa), 2024 would be even more significant.

More B2 cut-sheet Inkjet devices will be presented - currently, we have Fujifilm 720/750 and the Ricoh Pro Z75 on the market - I foresee both a Canon and HP B2 cut-sheet Inkjet device. I also foresee a Landa B2 Inkjet machine, and I wouldn't be surprised if it abandons the heated blanket for transferring the ink to the paper. When Benny Landa described the need for fast digital printing at Drupa 2016, he was right - maybe a bit too early, but he has kickstarted a competition among all Inkjet vendors that, in today's light, can be challenging to imagine Landa should win. It's a fact that Landa's success isn't as predicted, and it's also a fact that the speed and quality previously promised seem ONLY to have been achieved by AGFA and their new SpeedSet 1060.

On the continuous-fed printers, I predict to see a new familiy member of the Advantage series from HP with a smaller footprint than the current 4xx series but with wider paper. I also foresee a version of both machines with more drying capacity to increase speed and keep quality on thicker- and coated substrates.

As we have seen the Ricoh VC80000 and the Pro Z75, along with new updated toner devices, I am unsure whether we will see more new products from Ricoh. I know that Ricoh will have a massive booth at Drupa, and of course, they will use this to show their capabilities. Remember that the Pro Z75 can print up to 400 GSM and is therefore also a capable machine for folding cartons - and with a speed of 4,500 sheets in B2 - a worthy competitor to some of the other machines in the market!

Landa will also bring a folding carton packaging printer to market, and though the success of the S10P in B1 format has been limited, I believe they will bring a B1 packaging press to market. They MIGHT be the only OEM that still announces their new products at drupa - but let's see, having Landa at drupa presenting ONLY the same machines AGAIN - would be suicidal in my point of view.

Will Canon widen its continuous feed? At first, I would say no, but as the drying is the major challenge for all Inkjet OEMs, the only way to increase productivity dramatically is adding more printheads to make the machine wider - OR go from Waterbased to another delivery fluid - but nah - too early or not viable :-) Here, the day after New Year, I could, however, think of alcohol - but that's, of course, just a joke :-)

Though Agfa isn't exhibiting at drupa, 2024 will be the year their first SpeedSet 1060 presses will be put to work at beta-sites, and we will follow that. Being the fastest Inkjet press on the market MUST be annoying for the competitors, and I am pretty sure that we will see speed updates from all vendors - and while speaking of speed...

Kodak Prosper 7000 is still faster than the SpeedSet, and with its 400 meters per minute, it can print high quality and very fast. Some may be considering this as an option - however, Kodak's presence in the market is so-so, and with their continuous drop, the machine requires 24/7 operation to be profitable - limiting the opportunities!

Fujifilm is quite interesting - as they were the biggest exhibitor at PRINTING United, had a massive presence also at IGAS, and are positioning themselves as an enormous OEM in almost all segments in the industry - they could deliver an upgraded duplex version of the 750s - that would be awesome. They could also bring the continuous-fed inkjet printers to Europe, and they could bring a new breed of toner devices to the market - to show how "the winner takes it all" strategy is evident as we compare winners and losers of Carl Icahn's terrible influence on Xerox - who knows!?

However, Xerox will 2024 deliver new production print equipment to the market. The Baltoro B3 Inkjet printer is in many ways underestimated - because of size and speed - but the companies where we have seen them operating are VERY pleased with quality, productivity, uptime, and yes, pretty much everything - and if you think of the Baltoro as a product that fits into the Xerox portfolio and also Xerox's marketing- and communication strategies - an upgraded Baltoro with a format that fits the iGen5XL and maybe add new colors to the output - well, that wouldn't surprise me too much.

Xerox has extended its agreement with Fujifilm, and maybe other OEMs will be ready to deliver to Xerox. Whatever their position in the market is after the ill-failed adventures of the past years, they probably still have more leasing contracts than any other OEM and, therefore, a magnificent partner for selling volume. If you listen to my good friend Ray Stasieczko from 'End of Day with Ray," he believes in Xerox and their network but sees them as a dealer rather than an OEM. I'm afraid I have to disagree, but time will tell :-)

Konica-Minolta - well - it's a tough one - almost invisible in the market (from my perspective), but still some of the best toner-based printers I have seen. The KM-1e is also a B2 Inkjet printer, but with UV-curing - and sorry Konica-Minolta, I still don't like the smell of your print. Will they bring new technology to the market in 2024 - I simply don't know. I would suggest merging with Xerox - at least from a perspective where two companies can merge the best technology with the best distribution - but it's a far fetch - I know :-)

So, how is it in the offset world?

From the offset manufacturers, I don't expect significant upgrades from Komori. Though I know many great people from Komori, I am unsure where they are heading. In 2023, they celebrated their 100th anniversary, and even that was a bit strange, as they used this to look back rather than forward, and I believe they are, first and foremost, struggling to find their future. When we covered their Open House in 2023, it was a blast to see the machines at work and talk to customers who all confirmed that Komori is among the best machines in the market - and maybe not known to many, the ones that require the least maintenance and service - which by all means should be super selling arguments. Komori was the first automatic plate inserting (APC) manufacturer in 1990 when they presented this at Drupa 90. The company has a list of impressive innovations, yet they have difficulties getting these stories to market - at least to my knowledge. If you want to know more about the Komori story, I found this 10-minute documentary - great - but why not spend the money on a real narrator - I'm just asking. :-(

Komori is one company that collaborates with other companies in the digital segment. Both Konica-Minolta and Landa partner with Komori. This is similar to the collaboration between Heidelberg and Ricoh - which, by the way, will be interesting to see if that extends into collaborating about the Pro Z75 - who knows :-)

Manroland and RMGT are the only offset manufacturers that neither produce nor collaborate with digital OEMs - as far as I know. Manroland sheetfed is very invisible in the market - generally speaking - we have made a few films with manroland sheetfed in North America - and the customers are VERY pleased with the technology in the Evolution-series presses. Manroland Sheetfed will not be exhibiting at drupa, and they have been talking about doing a roadshow to meet interested customers, but so far, no dates or other information :-)

RMGT has a VERY strong focus on the 7-9-10 series offset presses, and though not very visible in the market (online, SoMe, trade press), they seem quite successful in some markets. In the US, we see RMGT presented by GraphCo and RM Machinery, but in Europe - I don't see them much - but maybe I should keep my eyes more open :-)

The two last and maybe also the largest suppliers in the market are Heidelberg and Koenig & Bauer. Two manufacturers with a legacy in the market, yet so different in many ways. So what to expect? When Hundsdörfer and Wassenberg terminated the VLF machines from Heidelberg, many saw this as a wrong decision, but at the same time, Wassenberg told me that they sold VLF machines at a loss. Therefore, it made sense to terminate the program. However, rumors the past year or so have repeatedly speculated about a new VLF machine from Heidelberg - and maybe Drupa 2024 will be the time when we will see this? In continuation of their new flexo press, it might make sense to present a VLF machine - maybe even an entirely new platform that, at some point, will open up for digital technology. Of course, these are speculations, but Heidelberg needs to present the company's future - also when it comes to digital and VLF :-)

Koenig & Bauer seem to be busy. The company partners with Durst on the Varijet for folding cartons and HP on corrugated; Rotojet is getting more attention in the market, and Koenig & Bauer is busy with binding and finishing equipment. Koenig & Bauer has, like Heidelberg, so many subsidiaries that it is sometimes difficult to keep an overview of the entire business. Last year at the NON-EVENT, we had a presentation by Sandra Wagner, who spoke about the digital transformation that Koenig & Bauer is in - and with a new design of machines, a new logo just a few years ago, and a VERY confident management - Koenig & Bauer, to me, seems to be the offset supplier with the most defined path for its future for now. On the technology side, the integrated solutions from both offset, digital (Inkjet), and finishing, software, energy management, and IoT are so aligned, and at drupa - Koenig & Bauer, as one of the largest exhibitors, will bring everything together - or at least that's my expectations!

And talking about binding...

In the binding world, faster setup time and a higher level of automation are given. Binding is still the most labor-intensive part of a finished product, and with difficulties getting skilled labor, printing companies are demanding easier-to-use machines and more automated, and robots are for sure one of the solutions. I wouldn't be surprised to see MBO have an updated version of their successful CoboStack robot arm - and obviously, other OEMs will follow with Robot/Cobot solutions.

Fujifilm presented robot technology at IGAS in 2022, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more robots from Fujifilm at drupa or at least during 2024. Yaskawa works with several OEMs on robot solutions. Still, it seems a bit difficult for the players in the market to decide who should take the initiative to productice a robot solution. Most robots today are acquired and made to work in an industry, but in the printing industry, we are more used to buying ready-to-install solutions that serve a specific challenge! Let's see if this will change or whether the big OEMs will decide to formulate suitable robots - that said, I believe it's essential to get a common robot language and integrate it into other workflows. We have already suggested a collaboration with Ultimate TechnoGraphics :-)

Another vendor also heavily vested in robots is Horizon. Horizon is among the OEMs that have developed a high level of automation. With their focus on Smart Factory Automation, they have repeatedly shown AGVs, cobots, robots, and deep integration with their ICE software. Horizon will likely present a casing solution during 2024 - to deliver a complete hardcover solution, all made on Horizon equipment. As Müller Martini now owns Hunkeler (and Kolbus for casing), the competition will change. At IGAS in Tokyo in 2022, Horizon showed their web-based solution and BQ-series binders for bookmaking. I wouldn't be surprised to see more continuous feeding finishing equipment soon from Horizon - and during 2024, I also believe Horizon will present more products in the packaging segment. Horizon seems to be on an absolute growth trajectory, and if printers only believed Horizon to be for short-run, you should see our film from Saxoprint in Germany. Always great to see how Horizon serves their customers, and at HP's #ThinkPrint event in Alpharetta in October, we met with Jeremy Stanek from Documation, who is a producer of books-of-one and, by the way, a big fan of INKISH - see his statement here: "Morten and his team did excellent work showcasing our company's POD technology. We found that INKISH is far reaching all across the print industry. As a direct result of the professional and modern video done by INKISH, we were able to onboard two new customers to our POD platform. Not only did INKISH put our company in the spotlight, they brought us new business that we would have never gained otherwise."

Müller Martini is also one of the leading OEMs in products of one - and in 2024, I would not be surprised if you see even deeper integration to Hunkeler equipment, and maybe also cheaper versions of their Vareo binders, to gain market shares in the market covered by companies like Horizon. We filmed LineMark in Maryland for Müller Martini, and what a super printing company - producing books-of-one on Canon, HP, Heidelberg, Müller Martini, Horizon, Imaging Solutions equipment, and more - simply a fantastic operation - see the film here.

All of the above is mainly about Commercial print, and my article should be even more about flexo/label print as this segment is exciting, and most foresee continuous growth. Technology-wise, printing presses are becoming increasingly flexible in their setup, combining Flexo, offset, digital, finishing, speed, quality, and applications to become better and better and more complex. Digital Transformation moves fast in Flexo - and companies like CERM seem to be the darling of all the other OEMs, from ABG, Infigo, LabelHub, and many many more.

LabelExpo in Brussels was the big show for the label/flexible market back in 2023 - and last time in Brussels. After a devastating show with temperatures beyond acceptable inside the old expo center in Brussels, Tarsus has decided to move the show to Barcelona. The US version, however, stays in Rosemont, Chicago, near the airport, and this year, it collates with PRINTING United in Las Vegas - with both shows taking place September 10-12th. Though PRINTING United aims to be the 'under one roof' show with all technology, the OEMs we have spoken to believe they need to be at both shows, which will be a challenge for some - I believe. Regarding both shows, INKISH has many films from both the Commercial space and Label/flexible, so we have not decided 100% whether we can cover both shows or we will have to pick. Not an easy decision!

The glue

The glue that binds all this technology together is software, and even the most dedicated hardware companies today have IT developers occupied developing the software for the machines, but also how they interface with others. Expect a lot of upgrades and a new approach from some of the software OEMs - because - as almost all software today is subscription-based, PSPs and Converters can probably save a lot of money by using fewer suppliers and developing more integrated solutions. A company like Ultimate TechnoGraphics has already started a journey convincing customers how to save money (and get smarter solutions) by only using Ultimate TechnoGraphics - or at least having Ultimate as part of their future solution. We did a film from Fotofabriek in The Netherlands who is already on this journey, and are very pleased with how it develops. Software that dynamically scales to current needs and software as services that are paid for when used makes it easier to scale a company and focus on the business rather than all the systems that need to scale - if not from the same supplier! See the film here.

Another interesting software company, in my mind, is Zaikio. The company is (unfortunately) owned by Heidelberg - and I am not only writing this because of our continuous dispute with Heidelberg - but because this is maybe one of the major reasons why the success, in my view, is limited. Zaikio was once called Crispy Mountain, and the first software they developed was a highly recognized MIS software called Keyline. When taken over by Heidelberg, it was most likely because Zaikio had started developing software to manage procurement, purchasing, subscriptions, and more - open to all OEMs and PSPs in the industry. The advantages of purchasing and managing your supply from a unified platform should make it easier and potentially offer better prices and scale-of-economy advantages. On the subscription side, Zaikio handles all the complexity of local VAT, taxes, subscription periods, etc. Though both Heidelberg and Zaikio try convincing the industry that there are tight shutters between the two companies, nobody really believes it, and the more significant issue, in my mind, is that as people from Heidelberg work at Zaikio - the data might be safe, but the meta-data - well.

On the MIS/ERP side - whau - things move quickly here. I can't give you a comprehensive overview, but I recommend watching the webinar series we did about MIS systems - 9 hours of demos and chats - a good learning experience.

AI is, of course, also a buzzword in our industry - and though different types of AI have been used for years - in software like imposition, etc., OpenAI and ChatGPT have been on many's minds.

Talking about software, IoT, and Industry 4.0 will continue impacting our industry. Though AI has been an integrated part of many of the solutions in the market today, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and IBM will change how AI will influence the industry. Though industry analysts like Pat McGrew speak about AI as something that has been used within OEMs for years and also merely see this as an extension to Machine Learning (ML), the impact of Language Models and the AI that suddenly can become vital tools in content creation will change our industry. We have already made films with companies that use OpenAI's ChatGPT to write XML documents for their imposition software. I wouldn't be surprised if many already use ChatGPT in the creation of sales letters, newsletters, marketing pieces, and even more - and that will change the narrative of communication - not always sure whether to the better - but as I am not a native English writer, this article is using Grammarly to help me improving my words - and Grammarly is also AI.

At PRINTING United, I spoke with Stephen Miller from Xerox about how they see AI changing Xerox - and it seems that Xerox invests considerable amounts in AI.

We have already heard about PSPs using ChatGPT to write their XML for Impostrip - you can see the film with Boone Graphics here. AI will play a bigger role in pre-productions, graphics design, text, and marketing, and the fact that every Microsoft Office 365 user has OpenAI ChatGPT 4.0 accessible in all Microsoft products will, of course, push AI into every company whether you like it or not. I did a webinar about Artificial Intelligence - you can see the replay here. Here you can see examples of how AI can do things, but you can also learn which jobs might be obsolete in the future - and talking about jobs.

Labor is still a challenge in our industry. I have only been to two places where labor wasn't an issue - one was in India, and the other was in a rural area in the US. So, in 2024, this doesn't seem to change much, unfortunately. The global median age in 2024 is expected to be 30.7 years, which is a 0.81% increase from 2023 - however, the more significant issue is that in 2024, we also have more people above 65 than below 15 - so the challenges getting labor will NOT change any time - probably never - so we have to change our productions to accommodate these changes. Digital Transformation is essential, but it's about adopting technology and educating current staff. With employees of different backgrounds, you simply must utilize education to ensure everybody is on board. Your older employees will probably need to work more years to fill the gaps, and you will have to invest in technology that simplifies all the processes, use robots, and automate as much as possible! Ten years ago, we spoke about Lights Out productions to save money; today, Lights Out production is needed as we can't get the labor. As part of your Digital Transformation, you also have to look at the physical layout of your shop. Too many shops we have visited are not ready for AGVs, cobots, and robots - and it's time, friends!

Collaboration

We see more and more collaboration in the industry. As mentioned, Durst, HP, Ricoh, Konica-Minolta, Landa, Heidelberg, Koenig & Bauer, and many more work together - and it's both a need and a must. PSPs and Converters buy the best equipment that serves their business objective- therefore, they will not necessarily buy all the equipment from only one supplier. Software and hardware must work together - and the glue is not only software but also on the service side. BOBST introduced their ONEecg, which is about Extended Color Gamut and ONE stop call. Though a platform can consist of technology from different suppliers, it's now time to never play the ball to the next in line but to solve the problem.

At PRINTING United 2023, Tecnau announced partnerships with Compak and Heidelberg. I believe they will announce more strategic partnerships at drupa or during the year - also because the acquisition of SITMA will give Tecnau new exciting opportunities in the market. When EFI sold its software division, which became eProductivity Software, it opened the doors for new partnerships. HP and EPS have already announced new integrations. As EPS now owns EFI Connect, EPS has also opened the Las Vegas event to more suppliers - EPS is still one of the vast software suppliers in the industry. Still, I find the company a bit difficult to position in the market, and I still haven't seen the opportunities to be its own. I don't expect significant announcements from EPS in 2024 - but hopefully, I am wrong :-)

We ARE a growing industry

The printing industry is a growth market, and even the commercial print market is considered by Grand View Research to have an annual CAGR of 2.8% alone in North America. So why is everybody talking about a declining market? First, the market is changing, and talking about growth differs from an even growth across the printing space. When growth is measured in actual value, it doesn't say anything about how many PSPs and how much paper is being used, so while paper manufacturers see a drop in demand and some printing companies go out of business, this is a natural development in a capitalistic market as supply and demand must be aligned - this is a health sign - as the market adapts to the above.

One of the issues is how we measure. If printing companies, in general, operate in a more healthy business environment, the revenue will grow, and the profit will grow, but the use of paper and ink will not grow. If click and ink prices decline, the OEMs or the INK manufacturers will see declining revenue, but this is not necessarily a sign of decline - it can also be a sign that the market isn't aligned. We, therefore, must start looking at the measures that matter - and if HP, Canon, Heidelberg, Koenig & Bauer, or whoever it might be can't make money, they - as all others have to reevaluate their business models and align supply and demand. If HP and others can't survive being part of a larger, low-margin PC business, redefine your business. I don't accept lying down and waiting for the slow death. There are TOO many opportunities in this market!

And with this - A Happy New Year.
We will from INKISH continue to deliver unbiased content on film, text - and, of course, in our MAGS magazine! All the best!