A couple of days ago, I published my expectations for 2022, and I got some excellent feedback - thank you! However, a good question is how you can do your own forecasting? Operating or managing a business is about serving your customer's needs, but imagine you could predict their demands in the future?

By Editor Morten B. Reitoft

Of course, you can't predict in detail, but seeing directions that will help you using megatrends is, I guess, good enough? Megatrends are trends that are universal and not branch-specific. Megatrends are influenced by society, culture, technology, consumers, marketing, communication, mass media, films, and more. Understanding these mechanisms can give you a tremendous advantage in serving existing and future customers—an example:

The sustainability agenda has been on for years now. In the beginning, it was for a few people, and after a long time, it became mainstream. Today sustainability is an important topic - and a megatrend - that would be stupid not to take seriously. Also, stupid because we need to focus on the future of how we consume and how we deliver the planet in a better shape to future generations!

Megatrends are not science, but despite this, it has become an important tool in marketing- and communication. Advertising companies use megatrends to push trends. Advertising is not about creating something new to sell products but more about facilitating a trend and emphasizing it in communicating a product or service. If you think of it for a moment, why do we see more and more gay people in blockbusters? According to Wikipedia, only 2% of all men and 0.5% of all women in the western world define themselves as homosexuals. One megatrend is diversity. We mirror ourselves in diversity and condemn conservatism. With an increased focus on minorities in all shapes and colors, the megatrend is pushed further by mainstreaming a trend into film, fashion, and our lives in general. So in this example, the diversity agenda will push further interest in supporting diversity as it's 'good' to believe and follow the masses. It's called the lemming effect - and it's not always bad nor good for that matter!

The two megatrends mentioned above you may not have heard of as being megatrends, but you, of course, know how important these two topics are. Both can easily be implemented in your business and give you an image of being smart, young, agile, etc.

Of course, this is a truth with moderations! Megatrends are universal but also cultural, so where some countries may support your business with an LBGQT+ agenda, some people in some cultures will find it offending - even illegal somewhere!

Megatrends also change and expire, so using megatrends to plan your business is important but, of course, essential to react to changes!

If you look at my predictions for 2022, most of these are based on megatrends. The environmental agenda - check. The difficulties recruiting new young talents - check. However, the latter is based on another megatrend saying the global population to be 65 or older in 2030. So as you can see, it doesn't require much talent to predict :-)

Predictions based on megatrends are like a free lunch; the complicated forecast, and by the way, more valuable if you are right, are the ones that are not based on megatrends. Developing your company based on indicators is fine but merely gives you iterations rather than revolutions. Few people have managed to create companies entirely on gut feelings, but few exceptions exist.