A new Tinbergen Institute discussion paper, “Retiring the Store Flyer: Effects of Ceasing Print Store Flyers on Household Grocery Shopping Behavior,” puts hard data behind a question that matters to both retailers and the print supply chain. Authors Arjen van Lin, Kristopher O. Keller, and Jonne Y. Guyt analyzed Lidl’s decision to stop distributing its printed flyer in one Dutch province and found that, although the same information remained available digitally, households reduced trips and spending after the print version disappeared. In the paper’s own words, “retiring the print flyer may backfire.”

  The detail matters. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences model, the researchers found Lidl expenditures fell 7.7 percent and units purchased fell 6.1 percent after flyer delivery stopped, while purchases shifted to other retailers, mainly the shopper’s existing primary retailer rather than a specific rival. The effect was also uneven: households that already treated Lidl as their primary retailer showed no meaningful change, while those using Lidl as a secondary stop were the ones most likely to pull back, reinforcing the idea that the printed flyer functions as a reminder and traffic driver as much as a promotion vehicle.  

The paper is especially tough on the idea that digital versions can simply replace print. Figure 3 shows that a large share of treated households only began using Lidl’s digital flyer after the print version ended, yet Table 6 shows that those recent adopters still reduced shopping at Lidl, suggesting late digital migration did not protect the business. The economic case also tilts back toward print in many scenarios: the chart on page 40 indicates that at average grocery net margins of 3 to 4 percent and a typical flyer distribution cost of about 2 cents, retiring the printed flyer produces a negative profit effect. For print, direct mail, and local media businesses, that is a significant signal that the printed circular still delivers measurable market value.