A new white paper from global print industry researchers Smithers warns that more than 1,000 US printing companies could close by 2030 as a direct result of tariff-related disruptions. “Impact of Tariffs on Printing,” projects that the US printing market could shrink by up to 6.4%, with total consumption dropping to as low as $78.6 billion depending on tariff scenarios. Commercial print and book printing are expected to face the steepest declines, while packaging-related print remains more resilient due to sustained demand from e-commerce and the food sector.

Smithers’ analysis highlights how tariffs on imported raw materials such as paper, inks, and printing plates could drive higher costs for US manufacturers, exacerbated by a lack of domestic capacity in the short term. The report also notes that US printers may need to adopt strategies like reshoring, regional hubs, and sourcing diversification beyond China to manage trade risks. Southeast Asia and Latin America are identified as emerging alternatives under the “China Plus One” approach increasingly favored by global brands and converters.

With global printing demand projected to reach $355.2 billion by 2030, Smithers’ findings underscore that the stakes extend beyond US borders, with export markets for used sheetfed offset hardware also likely to be affected. Printers and suppliers will need to act strategically to navigate shifting trade conditions and avoid long-term contraction. The full white paper is now available through Smithers.